The week of September 28 to October 2, 2026, delivered an unusual message: technology stocks rose, but bonds did not confirm the relief. To prepare for the following week, the challenge is therefore less about finding a common direction than understanding why currencies, rates, oil, gold and crypto are telling different stories.
In brief
- The Nasdaq-100 gained over the week, reaching a new record, while the U.S. 10-year yield ended near its elevated level, according to Nasdaq.
- On October 2, the G7 announced the release of up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel; Brent nevertheless ended at $102.25.
- Open interest in bitcoin derivatives rose by $2.3 billion since September 30, signaling a return of speculative positions ahead of the U.S. jobs report.
Stocks and rates: why the relief remains incomplete
The Nasdaq-100 set a weekly record without securing a lasting decline in long-term U.S. yields. This is the central divergence in the review: stocks welcomed the reduced risk of tighter monetary policy, but the bond market remained under pressure. The Nasdaq Economic Institute review reports a decline in the probability of a Fed rate hike during the week.
Slowing employment, weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation and cautious comments from Fed officials explain this repricing. The upwardly revised GDP figure, meanwhile, preserved the narrative of an economy that remains resilient. Nonfarm payrolls, whose measured impact is covered in this fact sheet, therefore do not tell the whole story of the week.
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. monthly core PCE, September 30 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Final U.S. quarterly GDP, September 30 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| U.S. payrolls, October 2 | 29,000 | 89,000 | 162,000 |
| U.S. monthly average hourly earnings, October 2 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| U.S. unemployment, October 2 | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
Table source: internal calendar provided. The “forecast” and “previous” values are retained as provided, regardless of the consensus estimates or revisions mentioned elsewhere.
Friday’s bond-market reaction shows why this nuance matters. The 10-year yield fell to 5.15%, then rose to 5.26% in CoinDesk’s intraday tracking: an initial easing, not a confirmed lasting change.
Looking ahead: continued gains in the indexes accompanied by falling yields would tell a different story from rising stocks alongside persistently elevated yields. This is a confirmation framework, not a forecast.
Currencies: the euro does not automatically benefit from inflation
The euro fell over the week despite higher European inflation, as financial and energy-related tensions weighed on the market’s interpretation. According to the FXStreet EUR/USD review, the pair experienced another down week, touched a low, and then traded around higher levels heading into the weekend. These observations do not represent an official closing price.
The European estimate on October 2 came in at 3.8%, versus 3.7% expected and 3.3% previously in the internal calendar. Core inflation reached 2.5%, in line with expectations, after 2.4% previously. The difference is a reminder to examine the composition of prices rather than focusing only on the headline figure.
FXStreet highlights the importance of energy and the concerns surrounding Europe. Higher inflation can strengthen expectations of tighter ECB policy, but it can also weaken the economic outlook when it is driven by energy costs. This second interpretation helps explain the euro’s weakness.
Looking ahead: distinguish a rebound driven by broad-based dollar weakness from a renewed improvement in confidence specific to Europe. In particular, compare EUR/USD with other major pairs and monitor yield spreads between European sovereign bonds: they can shed light on a move that the inflation figure alone does not explain.
Oil: strategic reserves do not erase geopolitics
Oil limited its decline on Friday despite the G7 announcement, leaving a lingering risk premium linked to tensions in the Middle East. The Parisien report with AFP gives a December Brent settlement of $102.25, down 0.06%, and a November WTI price of $91.11, down 1.90%.
The announcement covers up to 100 million barrels, to be released over four months. It is aimed in particular at tensions in refined fuel markets. However, difficult negotiations between Washington and Tehran prevented a complete easing of concerns.
Looking ahead: separate the political announcement from its implementation. The volumes actually available, the products involved and new geopolitical developments matter more than a reassuring headline. The internal calendar also lists the OPEC-JMMC meetings on October 4; no outcome is assumed here.
Gold: the safe haven remains sensitive to yields
Gold came under heavy pressure early in the week before stabilizing, caught between rising yields and demand for protection. FXStreet’s weekly review describes a move toward an important threshold on Monday, followed by stabilization during the second half of the week. This is not a weekly performance calculated from closing prices.
Higher rates initially weighed on the metal. Later, stress in bond markets also generated demand for protection. These mechanisms can coexist: a higher-yielding bond competes with a non-yielding asset, while concern about financial stability can support gold.
FXStreet identifies an intermediate support level and a resistance zone. These are reference points from its analysis, not stated targets.
Looking ahead: state your hypothesis explicitly. A move driven by falling yields requires different confirmation from a safe-haven move. Observing gold in several currencies can help distinguish strength in the metal from weakness in a currency.
Crypto: the rebound comes with a return of leverage
Bitcoin attracted new speculative positions before giving back part of its gain after the U.S. jobs report. CoinDesk reports a $2.3 billion increase in open interest in derivatives since September 30. Open interest measures contracts that remain open; it does not, by itself, reveal their direction.
The simultaneous rise in price and in the funding cost for long positions nevertheless suggested renewed bullish exposure. On Friday, bitcoin moved above $87,000 after the U.S. release, then returned toward $85,300 in CoinDesk’s session coverage. Again, these are intraday observations, not a weekend closing price.
Structural developments also deserve attention: on October 1, the SEC proposed a framework for crypto-asset custody for investment advisers and regulated funds. This is a proposal, not an adopted rule, and there is no demonstrated causal link to the rebound.
Looking ahead: distinguish spot demand from leverage expansion. A rise fueled by new contracts becomes more vulnerable to liquidations if the move reverses.
What tests should you prepare for the following week?
The week of October 5 to 9 will primarily test the consistency between economic activity, inflation expectations and monetary-policy messaging. The events below come from the internal calendar; no missing forecasts have been filled in.
| Date | Event | Question to prepare |
|---|---|---|
| October 5 | U.S. ISM services; previous: 55.4 | Does activity confirm economic resilience? |
| October 6 | Speech by Governor Ueda | What message does it send for Japanese monetary-policy expectations? |
| October 7 | Fed minutes | Which arguments shed light on monetary-policy trade-offs? |
| October 8 | Speeches by Bailey and U.S. jobless claims | Do the comments and data change expectations? |
| October 9 | Canadian employment and Michigan survey | What do employment and inflation expectations indicate? |
For U.S. services, the measured-impact fact sheet helps you prepare to observe the reaction rather than assume that a surprise will always produce the same result.
The key idea this week: the same news can support stocks without sustainably lowering rates or confirming a rise in gold or bitcoin.
In your review, record the trigger, the initial reaction and how well the move held into the end of the session separately. Edgyx’s automated journal can help you compare your executions in these divergent contexts without turning every fluctuation into validation of your scenario.
Key takeaways
The main lesson is the divergence between markets, not the existence of a universal trend. Preparation means looking for the missing confirmations.
- Indexes and rates: check whether the relief in stocks finally finds an echo in bonds.
- Currencies: do not confuse high European inflation with automatic support for the euro.
- Oil: track the implementation of the reserves release and geopolitical developments.
- Gold: distinguish monetary-policy easing from safe-haven demand.
- Crypto: examine the leverage behind the rebound and separate a regulatory proposal from actual adoption.
