On Monday, at the Asian open, the euro edged lower after a weekend of riots in France. A few hours later, Beijing announced stronger-than-expected growth. Two headlines before the first coffee, yet the week will be decided elsewhere: in Ottawa and London, by inflation, nine days before the Fed.
In brief
- The Fed meets on October 28 and the ECB on October 29. Futures indicate no change from the Fed, according to Business Recorder.
- Monday at 2:30 p.m., September Canadian CPI: 0.2% expected month over month, after -0.1%.
- Wednesday at 8:00 a.m., UK CPI: 3.4% expected year over year, after 3.1%, with the Bank of England policy rate at 3.75%.
A week for monitoring, not a week for taking a break
The US calendar is light and Fed officials have entered their blackout period. Do not confuse calm with an absence of risk. An analyst at InTouch Capital Markets, quoted by Business Recorder, expects light positioning and a high risk of headlines from France. The dollar index was holding steady on Monday morning after coming close to its monthly lows.
China delivered the first major data point. GDP grew 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, versus 4.4% expected and 4.3% in the previous quarter, reports investingLive. September retail sales rose 1.1% and industrial production 5.5%. The shadow remains real estate: investment there fell 20.6% over the first nine months of the year. For the aussie and kiwi, which are tied to Chinese demand, the figure removes one source of concern.
Oil fell in Asia after Donald Trump partially lifted sanctions on Russian energy, notes investingLive. Kazuo Ueda, meanwhile, defended “appropriate” rate hikes: the yen has its own driver.
The day-by-day calendar
Paris time, with figures from our economic calendar.
| Day | Time | Release | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 19 | 2:30 p.m. | Canada, CPI m/m | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| Monday 19 | 2:30 p.m. | Canada, median CPI y/y | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Monday 19 | 2:30 p.m. | Canada, trimmed CPI y/y | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Tuesday 20 | 8:00 a.m. | UK, wages 3 months y/y | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| Tuesday 20 | 10:03 p.m. | Canada, annual budget | — | — |
| Wednesday 21 | 8:00 a.m. | UK, CPI y/y | 3.4% | 3.1% |
| Wednesday 21 | 3:00 p.m. | Andrew Bailey speech | — | — |
| Wednesday 21 | 11:45 p.m. | New Zealand, CPI q/q | 0.8% | 1.5% |
| Thursday 22 | 2:30 p.m. | US, jobless claims | 200k | 199k |
| Friday 23 | 8:00 a.m. | UK, retail sales m/m | -0.2% | 0.5% |
| Friday 23 | 3:45 p.m. | US, flash services PMI | 58.0 | 58.7 |
| Friday 23 | 4:00 p.m. | Michigan, revised sentiment | 46.3 | 46.3 |
Monday: the loonie faces its inflation data
Economists disagree on the Canadian headline index. TD Securities expects year-over-year inflation to accelerate, driven by gasoline, according to FXStreet. RBC expects 3% for the third consecutive month.
The real judge will be the core measures tracked by the Bank of Canada: median and trimmed CPI, expected to remain steady at 2.0% and 1.9%. A surprise in either of these two figures would weigh more heavily on USD/CAD than a deviation in the headline index.
The economy is not helping the loonie: employment fell in August and then again in September, according to RBC, with unemployment around 6.5%. On Tuesday at 10:03 p.m., after the New York close, the federal budget adds another risk during thin liquidity.
Wednesday: sterling on a knife edge
On Tuesday, UK three-month wages are expected at 3.8%, after 3.9%. According to the forecasts shown in the calendar, CPI could reach 3.4% on Wednesday, versus 3.1% in August.
In its September letter to the Chancellor, the Bank of England attributed 0.7 percentage points of the deviation from target to the direct effects of energy. Its staff saw inflation rising toward 3¾% in the fourth quarter and slightly above 4% in early 2027. The policy rate was held at 3.75% in September.
A figure in line with expectations would surprise no one. The market will focus on services inflation, which is more closely linked to wages, and then on Andrew Bailey’s tone at 3:00 p.m. Check the measured impact of his speeches before leaving an order open on GBP/USD or EUR/GBP. On Friday, UK retail sales are expected to fall 0.2%.
On Wednesday evening at 11:45 p.m., New Zealand CPI is expected at 0.8% quarter over quarter, after 1.5%.
Friday: PMIs and the euro under scrutiny
In France, manufacturing is expected at 50.6, after 50.3, and services at 50.8, after 51.4. In Germany, manufacturing is expected at 53.5 and services at 52.6, both slightly lower. With unrest in the French streets, a French services PMI below 50 would give euro sellers a data-based argument.
In the United States, manufacturing PMI is expected at 55.5, after 57.0, and services at 58.0. Check the measured reaction to the flash services PMI before taking on risk. The most sensitive figure may lie elsewhere. Michigan inflation expectations stood at 4.7% in the last reading. After a producer price index reading of 1.3% month over month on October 15, versus 0.6% expected, any further rise would remind the Fed that inflation is not under control.
Gold and cryptocurrencies have no specific appointment of their own. They will follow the dollar and real yields. Thursday’s jobless claims, expected at 200,000, remain the only test of the US labor market before the Fed.
Write the plan before the number
For every release affecting your pairs, write down four lines:
- the scenario: what would the pair do if the figure came in above expectations, in line, or below?
- the no-trade window: how many minutes without opening a position before and after the release;
- the position size: reduced if the stop needs to be widened;
- the account rules: many prop firms impose restrictions on trading around high-impact announcements. Review yours.
The classic trap is widening the stop without changing the position size. Risk rises silently.
What your journal should retain
The number is released, the candle stretches, and you enter. An hour later, you no longer know whether you had a plan.
Before the release, record your scenario and take a screenshot of the chart. Afterwards, add the spread observed, execution slippage, and the gap between your plan and what you actually did. Tag each trade with a simple label: “before announcement,” “after announcement,” or “outside announcement.” After a few weeks, the question is no longer “was I right about CPI?” but “do I make money around CPI releases?”
A trader does not have to guess the number. They need to know, with evidence, whether they make money when the number is released.
A trading journal with AI such as Edgyx imports your trades and calculates these statistics, while its Ora coach helps you interpret them. A well-maintained spreadsheet works too. The key is to keep the columns separate.
Key takeaways
- The Fed (October 28) and the ECB (October 29) dominate the horizon, but both are silent this week: the risk comes from Canada, the UK, and France.
- On Monday at 2:30 p.m., focus more on Canadian median and trimmed CPI than on the headline index.
- On Wednesday at 8:00 a.m., UK CPI is expected at 3.4%. Bailey speaks at 3:00 p.m.
- On Friday, the flash PMIs and Michigan inflation expectations close out the week.
- Widening your stop without reducing your position size multiplies risk. Isolate your results around announcements in your journal.
