On Friday, the U.S. jobs report will be released at 2:30 p.m., not 1:30 p.m. The United States turned its clocks back this weekend, bringing the time difference with Paris back to six hours. This detail opens a busy week: two central banks are expected to raise rates, Americans go to the polls on Tuesday, and European inflation is hovering near 4%.
In brief
- Tuesday, November 3 at 4:30 a.m., the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to raise its policy rate from 4.60% to 4.85%, according to the Edgyx economic calendar consensus.
- Thursday, November 5 at 1 p.m., the Bank of England is expected to reach 4.00%, up from 3.75% today, with a projected 7-0-2 vote.
- Friday, November 6 at 2:30 p.m., the market expects 63,000 U.S. jobs to be added, after 29,000 in September.
The backdrop: central banks are tightening the screws again
Last week, U.S. growth came in at an annualized 3.4% in the third quarter, above the expected 3.2%. Core PCE inflation rose 0.3% month over month. The market is pricing in a Fed hike in December, according to FXStreet: Kevin Warsh has not ruled out another tightening move.
The ECB, meanwhile, left its refinancing rate at 2.65% last Thursday. The entire week revolves around this contrast: who hikes, and who waits?
In China, the signals are conflicting. The private RatingDog manufacturing PMI came in at 52.0 in October, above the expected 51.6. The official index, however, slipped to 49.3, below the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction, reports investingLive. Closely tied to Chinese demand, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are moving without a clear compass.
The day-by-day calendar
Paris time, forecasts from the Edgyx economic calendar.
| Day | Time | Event | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 2 | 4 p.m. | ISM manufacturing (United States) | 54.5 | 54.5 |
| Tuesday 3 | 4:30 a.m. | RBA rate | 4.85% | 4.60% |
| Tuesday 3 | 4 p.m. | JOLTS job openings (United States) | 7.11 million | 7.08 million |
| Tuesday 3 | 10:45 p.m. | New Zealand unemployment | 5.5% | 5.6% |
| Wednesday 4 | 11 a.m. | Eurozone inflation (flash estimate) | 4.0% | 3.8% |
| Wednesday 4 | 4 p.m. | ISM services (United States) | 54.9 | 54.9 |
| Thursday 5 | 1 p.m. | Bank of England rate | 4.00% | 3.75% |
| Thursday 5 | 10 p.m. | Canadian federal budget | – | – |
| Friday 6 | 2:30 p.m. | Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) | 63,000 | 29,000 |
Monday and Tuesday: Australia leads the way, America votes
After Monday’s manufacturing ISM, the first major event comes during your night. On Tuesday at 4:30 a.m., the RBA is expected to raise its rate to 4.85%, its highest level in 18 years, according to Capital Brief. It would be the fifth hike since February. Commonwealth Bank economists warn that unanimity is not guaranteed. Since the hike is expected, AUD/USD will react mainly to the tone of the statement. A pause or another tightening move?
On Tuesday, Americans vote in the midterm elections. FXStreet notes that traders are already reducing their long-dollar positions. The first results will come in during the night, Paris time, in the middle of the Asian session: liquidity is thin and price spreads are wider.
At 10:45 p.m., New Zealand releases its unemployment rate, expected at 5.5% after 5.6%. A decline would confirm the strength of the local labor market, four days before the general election.
Wednesday: European inflation puts the ECB on the spot
Eurostat’s flash estimate is released at 11 a.m. The consensus expects 4.0%, up from 3.8% in September, according to Eurostat. On Friday, Italian inflation jumped while Spain’s remained high, reports Euronews.
With prices rising by 4% and the rate at 2.65%, the ECB appears behind the curve. A hotter-than-expected figure would revive bets on a rate hike. FXStreet is watching EUR/USD, where euro sellers are already beginning to cover their positions.
Thursday: London tightens
At 1 p.m., the Bank of England is expected to raise its rate from 3.75% to 4.00%. The Edgyx calendar is pricing in a 7-0-2 vote: seven votes for a hike, none for a cut, and two for no change. In September, the split was 3-0-6. UK inflation stands at 3.5%, notes HomeOwners Alliance, citing Oxford Economics. The consultancy expects hikes in November and February, taking the rate as high as 4.25%.
If the vote is closer than expected, sterling could fall despite the hike. Half an hour later, Andrew Bailey’s press conference could extend the move or reverse it. That evening, at 10 p.m., Ottawa presents its budget.
Friday: U.S. and Canadian jobs data at the same time
At 2:30 p.m., two reports are released simultaneously. In the United States, the consensus expects 63,000 jobs (see NFP and its measured reaction), unemployment unchanged at 4.2%, and hourly wages up 0.3% month over month. Barclays, cited by Kiplinger, expects 50,000 jobs and unemployment at 4.1%. In Canada, the market hopes for 14,500 jobs to be added, after job losses in September.
USD/CAD will therefore absorb two shocks at once. Two surprises in the same direction may partially offset each other; two opposing surprises could trigger a sharp move. Kazuo Ueda speaks at 5 p.m., and New Zealanders vote on Saturday.
The assets on the front line
- AUD/USD and NZD/USD: the RBA on Tuesday, New Zealand employment that evening, and China as the backdrop.
- EUR/USD: Wednesday’s inflation against bets on a Fed hike in December.
- GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: the BoE on Thursday, where the vote will matter more than the hike itself.
- USD/CAD: two speeches by Tiff Macklem, the budget, employment, and a trade deal whose “concept” Donald Trump has mentioned.
- Gold: the metal is suffering from the prospect of a stricter Fed.
- Crypto: Binance has begun reopening withdrawals, starting with the Bitcoin network, after the theft of around $6.3 billion, according to Dawn.
Lock in your plan before Monday evening
Open your calendar and note every release affecting a pair you trade. For each one, set a rule: be flat before the announcement, reduce your position size, or hold the position with a stop already in place.
The plan is decided when the market is calm. During the release, you only follow it.
If you trade a prop firm account, reread the rules before Tuesday. Many challenges prohibit trading in the minutes around a major announcement. Also check your maximum daily loss: election night may create gaps that your stop will not cover.
Finally, monitor your correlated positions. Buying AUD/USD and EUR/USD amounts to selling the dollar twice: a surprise NFP could move both pairs at the same time.
What your journal should record this week
Before each trade, write down the nearest release, its time, and your assumption: “I’m betting on a close BoE vote,” “I’m staying out of the NFP.” Afterwards, record the difference between the expected exit price and the price you actually obtained.
After a few weeks, these notes answer a simple question: do you make money around releases, or outside them? Edgyx automatically links your trades to the economic calendar and the measured impact of each release, and Ora can flag this pattern if it keeps recurring.
One last point: check your alerts. Everything coming from Washington arrives one hour later than last week.
Key takeaways
- The RBA on Tuesday and the BoE on Thursday are expected to raise rates: the tone and the vote will matter more than the decision.
- Expected at 4.0% on Wednesday, eurozone inflation puts pressure on the ECB and its 2.65% rate.
- Tuesday’s U.S. elections will unfold overnight, in thin liquidity: expect price gaps.
- On Friday at 2:30 p.m., NFP and Canadian employment data are released together: USD/CAD is on the front line.
- Set your rule for each announcement before Monday evening and record it in your journal.
