USD
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD): impact on EUR/USD
What the market actually did in the 15 minutes after this release, on EUR/USD and the Nasdaq 100, measured minute by minute over the latest releases.
Average range in the 15 minutes after the release, compared with an ordinary quarter hour on the same market. The line marks ×1.
Measurements recalculated on .
Key takeaways
- On EUR/USD, this release moves the market on average 1.7 times more than an ordinary quarter hour: 10 pips versus 6.1 pips.
- The other markets react less strongly: the Nasdaq 100 (×1.2).
- On gold (×1.4), the reaction stays close to an ordinary quarter hour: this release barely moves them.
- These averages cover 6 to 9 releases: a small sample that grows with every release.
Why gold reacts to US data
Gold is priced in dollars and pays no interest. Two channels therefore link it to US statistics: the dollar, and real yields, meaning interest rates after inflation, which depend on what is expected from the Federal Reserve.
A stronger-than-expected labour market (more jobs, faster wage growth, lower unemployment) usually points to high rates for longer: it supports the dollar and yields, and weighs on gold. A disappointing figure most often brings rate cuts forward, which supports it.
In practice, what matters is the gap between the released figure and the forecast, revisions to previous months, the other figures released in the same second, and what the market had already priced in. The measurements above describe the size of gold's move after each release, not its direction: they do not say which way the next one will go.
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Latest releases
The released figure against the forecast and the previous one, as given by the economic calendar.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | 90K | 73K | 38K |
| September 2, 2026 | 38K | 47K | 44K |
| July 1, 2026 | 98K | 118K | 122K |
| June 3, 2026 | 122K | 118K | 105K |
| May 6, 2026 | 109K | 118K | 61K |
| March 4, 2026 | 63K | 50K | 11K |
Frequently asked questions
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD): what impact on gold?
Fairly little: according to Edgyx measurements, gold moves on average only 1.4 times more than an ordinary quarter hour after ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD). When it does react, it is through the dollar and expected US rates, which depend on the gap between the released figure and the forecast.
Why compare with an ordinary quarter hour?
Each market has its own usual activity. On EUR/USD, an ordinary quarter hour means 6.1 pips; in the quarter hour after this release, it means 10 pips on average. Comparing each market with its own ordinary quarter hour shows which one this release really shakes, beyond what it usually does.
How many releases are these measurements based on?
On 6 to 9 releases, each measured minute by minute in the following quarter hour. The number can differ from one market to another: a release only counts when our one-minute candles are complete on that market at that time. Every new release is added to the sample.
Do these figures say which way the market will go?
No. They measure the size of the move, not its direction. They describe past releases and are not forecasts.
And on what you trade?
In Edgyx, the reaction is split into three windows, from five minutes to one hour, with the share of first moves that reverse and the time it takes the market to stop searching. All of it on the instrument you trade, matched with your journal: how often you opened a position during this release, and what it earned you compared with the rest of your activity.
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Create a free accountMeasurements made by Edgyx on its own one-minute market data, from the release dates and times of the economic calendar. A description of past releases: not a forecast, a signal or investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.