USD
Retail Sales m/m (USD): impact on EUR/USD and the Nasdaq 100
What the market actually did in the 15 minutes after this release, on EUR/USD, the Nasdaq 100, and gold, measured minute by minute over the latest releases.
Average range in the 15 minutes after the release, compared with an ordinary quarter hour on the same market. The line marks ×1.
Measurements recalculated on .
Key takeaways
- On EUR/USD, this release moves the market on average 3 times more than an ordinary quarter hour: 18 pips versus 6.2 pips.
- The other markets react less strongly: the Nasdaq 100 (×2.0) and gold (×2.0).
- These averages cover 5 to 7 releases: a small sample that grows with every release.
Why gold reacts to US data
Gold is priced in dollars and pays no interest. Two channels therefore link it to US statistics: the dollar, and real yields, meaning interest rates after inflation, which depend on what is expected from the Federal Reserve.
Stronger-than-expected activity (ISM surveys, sales, output) usually points to a Fed in less of a hurry to cut: the dollar and yields rise, gold is less in demand. Weakening activity most often works the other way, all the more if it revives demand for safe havens.
In practice, what matters is the gap between the released figure and the forecast, revisions to previous months, the other figures released in the same second, and what the market had already priced in. The measurements above describe the size of gold's move after each release, not its direction: they do not say which way the next one will go.
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Latest releases
The released figure against the forecast and the previous one, as given by the economic calendar.
| Date | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 15, 2026 | 0.8% | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| July 16, 2026 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| May 14, 2026 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.6% |
| March 6, 2026 | -0.2% | -0.3% | 0.0% |
| February 10, 2026 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
This figure never comes alone
Also released in the same second — USD : Core PPI m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims. The market reacts to all of them together, not to this figure alone: that is why these indicators share the same reaction profile.
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Frequently asked questions
Retail Sales m/m (USD): what impact on gold?
Measured by Edgyx on 5 releases, gold moves on average 2 times more than an ordinary quarter hour in the following 15 minutes (25 points versus 13 points). The direction depends mostly on the gap between the released figure and the forecast, through the dollar and expected US rates; our measurements describe the size, not the direction.
Why compare with an ordinary quarter hour?
Each market has its own usual activity. On EUR/USD, an ordinary quarter hour means 6.2 pips; in the quarter hour after this release, it means 18 pips on average. Comparing each market with its own ordinary quarter hour shows which one this release really shakes, beyond what it usually does.
How many releases are these measurements based on?
On 5 to 7 releases, each measured minute by minute in the following quarter hour. The number can differ from one market to another: a release only counts when our one-minute candles are complete on that market at that time. Every new release is added to the sample.
Do these figures say which way the market will go?
No. They measure the size of the move, not its direction. They describe past releases and are not forecasts.
And on what you trade?
In Edgyx, the reaction is split into three windows, from five minutes to one hour, with the share of first moves that reverse and the time it takes the market to stop searching. All of it on the instrument you trade, matched with your journal: how often you opened a position during this release, and what it earned you compared with the rest of your activity.
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Create a free accountMeasurements made by Edgyx on its own one-minute market data, from the release dates and times of the economic calendar. A description of past releases: not a forecast, a signal or investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.