Bitcoin briefly fell below $76,000 during the US election night as early counts favored the Democrats. The previous day’s rebound was therefore not enough to reassure the market: for your November 4 session, the risk is confusing a relief move with buyers returning.
In brief
- Bitcoin below $76,000 during election night, down from midnight UTC at the time of CoinDesk’s live update.
- $398.6 million in net outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs on November 2. Ether ETFs also lost around $140 million.
- High implied volatility on bitcoin options expiring November 4, above that of later expiries, according to the report published on November 2: traders had paid to hedge the election.
The election shakes an already fragile market
On November 3, at the opening of Wall Street, bitcoin was still hovering around $77,000. It was holding above its recent lows near $76,300. A few hours later, CoinDesk’s election live feed reported a move below $76,000, accompanied by a decline in Nasdaq futures. The early-session resilience did not hold through the night.
This shift in the backdrop matters more than any political color viewed in isolation. The first election announcements change expectations around Congress, financial legislation and budget trade-offs. They arrive as counting progresses, without waiting for European markets to open. At the time of the update, several Senate races remained undecided.
To prepare for your session, separate the announced result, what remains to be confirmed and the market’s actual price reaction. A result favorable to part of the crypto industry is not, by itself, a reason to chase a candle. Instead, note whether the market holds its move after the next announcement.
Options had priced in the storm
The most informative signal came before the vote. On November 2, bitcoin options expiring on November 4 showed higher implied volatility than later expiries. The curve formed a hump around the election. Ether showed a similar setup. Traders were paying more to hedge this specific event, without pricing in the same turbulence across the rest of the month.
This implied volatility reflects the size of the fluctuations priced into the options. It does not indicate their direction. More expensive protection against turbulence therefore does not allow you to conclude that bitcoin must fall, or that a rebound will automatically follow the count.
Laevitas, cited by CoinDesk, estimated that this hedging demand could drop quickly after the event. That describes a possible scenario for the price of protection, not a forecast for the underlying asset to rise. Bitcoin could remain weak even if the election premium faded.
Cheaper protection does not mean buyers are coming back.
In your preparation, write this distinction out in full. It prevents you from turning “stress could fade” into “the market must resume its rise.”
ETFs do not validate the rebound
On the fund side, the start of the month remained marked by withdrawals. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $398.6 million in net outflows on November 2. BlackRock accounted for $405.3 million in outflows from IBIT, partly offset by $6.7 million in inflows at Fidelity.
Ether was not spared. Its ETFs saw around $140 million in net outflows during the same session, extending their outflow streak to six sessions. A price surge is therefore not enough to establish that this source of demand has recovered.
When reading the market, treat published flows and observed price separately. The ETF figure describes a completed session; your chart shows trading as it happens. Look for consistency between them without asking the first to predict every move in the second.
A good question to write down before trading would be: “Does my scenario rely on a confirmed return of demand, or merely on a temporary halt in selling?” The answer changes the confirmations you should wait for.
Leverage is unwinding too
CoinDesk’s report published on November 3 showed heavy activity in futures over a 24-hour period. Yet open interest—the value of contracts still outstanding—was falling. There was plenty of activity, then, but no broad accumulation of new positions.
The same report showed a decline in ether open interest. On the price side, the market remained mixed at the time of the update. These different windows should not be combined into a single conclusion.
Before describing a move as a “return of risk appetite,” compare the same time frames and the same instruments. You can prepare a very simple session framework:
- Rebound with falling open interest: seek additional confirmation before talking about new buyers.
- Rebound with positions rebuilding: also check spot trading and funding costs.
- Fresh decline accompanied by liquidations: focus first on execution conditions rather than trying to call the bottom.
This framework helps you formulate hypotheses. It does not replace your entry rule.
Withdrawals muddy the on-chain picture
Exchange outflows also require a cautious reading. In a November 2 article, Chris Sullivan, an executive at Hyperion Decimus, highlighted significant bitcoin transfers into off-exchange custody following the Binance hack. He viewed this as potential longer-term support, while acknowledging that the incident made positioning harder to interpret.
The ambiguity is real. Withdrawing bitcoin can signal an intention to hold it. It can also reflect the need to change custodians after a security alert. In the current context, treating every withdrawal as bullish conviction would therefore be too quick a conclusion.
For your journal, keep the observation and the explanation in separate fields. “Assets are leaving an exchange” describes a transfer. “Their holders will no longer sell” assumes an intention that the transfer alone does not prove.
XRP follows a separate timeline
Not every catalyst is coming from Washington. The XRP Ledger was scheduled to activate an amendment on November 4, according to the article published by CoinDesk on November 2. It concerned a permission related to tokens issued on the network, including stablecoins; the supply of XRP itself was not affected. Activation remained conditional on continued validator support.
For anyone monitoring XRP, the practical point is to distinguish an expected activation from a confirmed one. Also avoid turning a technical amendment into an automatic price thesis: the scope of the change matters more than the word “update” in a headline.
Prepare execution, not a forecast
Before opening a position, write down what would invalidate your scenario and what would make you stay out. Add an execution-related condition: a bid-ask spread that has become too wide, an unstable platform or an announcement that is still impossible to interpret.
After the session, use Edgyx’s AI trading journal to compare your initial hypothesis with your actual entries. Note in particular whether you traded a prepared scenario or reacted to an election announcement. This distinction is useful when you review your trades away from the noise of the night.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin’s move below $76,000 interrupted the stabilization seen the previous day around $77,000.
- Options had priced in higher volatility around the election. Its possible disappearance would not guarantee a rebound.
- Bitcoin and ether ETF outflows do not yet confirm a return of that demand.
- For your session, distinguish the election result, flows, position closures and new buying. Prepare the confirmations you expect before the next announcement.
